Trend Analysis of Red Chili Price-Formation Models

Siti Mir'atul Khasanah(1), Mochammad Maksum(2), Endy Suwondo(3*)

(1) Agro–Industrial Technology Department, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Flora No. 1, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
(2) Agro–Industrial Technology Department, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Flora No. 1, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
(3) Agro–Industrial Technology Department, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Flora No. 1, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
(*) Corresponding Author


Red chili’s characteristic flavor has been a popular element in Indonesian cuisine. A large and continuous demand for red chili is inconsistent with production volumes, causing frequent and extreme price fluctuations throughout the year. This study explores the changing trends in red chili prices to identify the influencing factors. The study was conducted in the Sleman district of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Time-series datasets of monthly production rates and prices of chili for 3 years were subject to multiple linear regression analysis. The study found a rising trend in prices in the Sleman Regency from January 2014 to December 2016. The factors significantly influencing the red chili prices was the price of cayenne pepper. The production cost of chili, the price of tomatoes, and the price of chili for the previous 2 months had only partial and nonsignificant effects. The timing of great Muslim celebrations, such as Eid Al-Fitr and Eid Al-Adha had no significant effect on the price of red chili. However, Christmas and New Year events were associated with higher prices.


Modeling; price formation; red chili; time-series; trend

Full Text:



Anonymous (2017). Harga Cabai merah melonjak 18% Picu inflasi september. Accessed from

Ansofino, Jolianis, Yolamalinda and Arfilindo, H. (2016). Textbook on Econometrics. Yogyakarta: Deepublish

Aryasita, P. R. and Mukarromah, A. (2013). Analisis fungsi transfer pada harga cabai merah yang dipengaruhi oleh curah hujan di Surabaya. J. Sains Arts POMITS, 2(2). Doi: 10.12962/j23373520.v2i2.4848

Díaz-Pérez, M., Carreño-Ortega, Á, Salinas-Andújar, J. A. and Callejón-Ferre, Á (2019). Logistic Regression to evaluate the marketability of pepper cultivars. Agronomy, 9(3). Doi: 10.3390/agronomy9030125

Farid, M. and Subekti, N. A. (2012). Tinjauan terhadap produksi, konsumsi, distribusi dan dinamika harga cabe di Indonesia. Scientific Bulletin at Research and Development Center for Trade, 6 (2).

Indarti, D. (2016). Outlook komoditas pertanian Sub sektor Hortikultura. Jakarta: Center for Agricultural Data and Information System. Secretariat General of the Ministry of Agriculture. ISSN: 1907-1507

Omolo, M. A., Wong, Z. Z., Mergen, A. K., Hastings, J. C., Le, N. C., Reiland, H. A., Case, K. A. and Baumler, D. J. (2014). Antimicrobial properties of chili peppers. J. Infect. Dis. Ther., 2(4). Doi:

Orobiyi, A., Ahissou, H., Gbaguidi, F., Sanoussi, F., Houngbèmè, A., Dansi, A. and Sanni, A. (2015). Capsaicin and ascorbic acid content in the high yielding chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) landraces of Northern Benin. Int. J. Curr. Microbiol. App. Sci., 4(9): 39-403. Available from

Palar, N., Pangemanan, P. A. and Tangkere, E. G. (2016). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi harga cabai rawit di Manado. J. Agri-Sosioekonomi, 12(2). Doi:

Saleh, B. K., Omer, A. and Teweldemedhin, B. (2018). Medicinal uses and health benefits of chili pepper (Capsicum spp.): a review. MOJFPT, 6(4): 325-328. Doi: 10.15406/mojfpt.2018.06.00183

Sativa, M., Harianto, H. and Suryana, A. Int. J. Agr. Syst., 5(2): (2017Sativa). Doi: 10.20956/ijas.v5i2.1201

Turvey, C. G. and Wongsasutthikul, P. (2016). An autoregressive approach to modeling commodity prices as a quasi-fractional Brownian motion. Agric. Fin. Rev., 76(1): 54-75. Doi: 10.1108/AFR-01-2016-0004

Noorviana, C. D. N., Hartono, S. and Waluyati, L. R. (2017). Volatility analysis on producer price of red pepper and cayenne pepper in west Java Province Indonesia. Agro Ekon., 28(2).

Webb, A. J. and Kosasih, I. A. (2011). Analysis of price volatility in the Indonesia fresh chili market. Annual Meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium. Available from

Wei, J., Wang, W., Tsai, S. B. and Yang, X. (2018). To cooperate or not? an analysis of complementary product pricing in green supply chain. Sustainability, 10(5). Doi: 10.3390/su10051392

K. (2016). Analysis of factors affecting demand red chili pepper (Capsicum annum L) in Solok and effort fulfillment. Int. J. Sci. Technol. Res., 5(8): 159


Article Metrics

Abstract views : 2214 | views : 3213


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2020 Siti Mir'atul Khasanah, Mochammad Maksum, Endy Suwondo

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

agriTECH has been Indexed by:

agriTECH (print ISSN 0216-0455; online ISSN 2527-3825) is published by Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada in colaboration with Indonesian Association of Food Technologies.

website statisticsView My Stats