Legal reform, pandemic, and adolescent marriage: a change-point analysis of marriage dispensation trends in Yogyakarta, 2010–2021
Abstract
Purpose: This study examined temporal trends in adolescent marriage dispensation applications in the Special Region of Yogyakarta between 2010 and 2021 to better understand the impact of both structural and contextual shifts.
Methods: This quantitative study used a time-series design and data on marriage dispensation applications from January 2010 to March 2021. Data were obtained from the High Religious Court and the Religious Courts of each district/city across the Special Region of Yogyakarta, using court-issued dispensations as a proxy for adolescent marriage under definitions applicable before and after the 2019 legal amendment. To detect significant shifts over time, we modeled overall trends and applied change-point analysis (CPA) using multiple algorithms, including mean, variance, and mean-variance approaches.
Results: A statistically significant change point was identified in the second quarter of 2019. Prior to this period, marriage dispensation applications fluctuated within a stable range. After quarter 2 2019, applications increased sharply, peaking in quarter 3 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The variance-based change-point analysis provided the best model fit (MBIC = 11.35), indicating heterogeneous community responses to the revised marriage law that were likely exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusion: The variance-based change point indicates that the legal reform was followed by heterogeneous community responses, which were likely exacerbated by the socioeconomic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings highlight the need to accompany legal reform with community preparedness and public health interventions to minimize unintended increases in marriage dispensation applications.
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