Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Assessment in Cianjur Following the Mw 5.6, 2022 Earthquake
Abstract
On November 21, 2022, a Mw 5.6 earthquake struck Cianjur, West Java, Indonesia, causing extensive damage to buildings, infrastructure, and public facilities, and resulting in 602 fatalities and thousands of injuries. The earthquake’s hypocenter was located near the Cugenang Sub-District, leading to the identification of the previously unmapped Cugenang Fault as its source. This discovery highlights the need to reassess seismic hazards in the region, as it reveals the existence of previously unrecognized active faults. This study conducts a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Cianjur using an updated seismic source model that incorporates the Cugenang Fault. We apply updated ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and utilize the logic tree method to account for uncertainties in attenuation equations and source parameters. Ground motion is expressed as peak ground acceleration (PGA) on both bedrock and surface conditions for return periods of 100, 150, 250, 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, and 10,000 years. These return periods capture the hazard levels associated with both frequent low-magnitude and rare high-magnitude earthquakes. Our findings indicate that high PGA values in the Cianjur area are concentrated around crustal faults, exceeding 1.0 g for return periods of 2,500 years and beyond. The Cugenang Fault has a localized impact, with its influence extending up to approximately 10 km from the fault line. A seismic hazard disaggregation analysis confirms that crustal faults are the dominant seismic sources in the region. The results of this study provide valuable insights for updated seismic risk in Cianjur and support future mitigation strategies, urban planning, and infrastructure design to enhance earthquake resilience in the affected area.
References
Abrahamson, N., Gregor, N. and Addoc, K. (2016), ‘BC Hydro Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Subduction Earthquakes’, Earthquake Spectra, 32(1), 23–44. URL: https://doi.org/10.1193/051712EQS188MR
Abrahamson, N., Kuehn, N., Gulerce, Z., Gregor, N., Bozorgnia, Y., Chiou, B., Idriss, I. M., Campbell, K., Youngs, R., Parker, G. and Stewart, J. (2018), ‘Update of the BC Hydro Subduction Ground-Motion Model using the NGA-Subduction Dataset’, PEER Reports, 2018-02. URL: https://doi.org/10.55461/OYCD7434
Aribowo, S., Husson, L., Natawidjaja, D. H., Authemayou, C., Daryono, M. R., Puji, A., Valla, P., Pamumpuni, A., Wardhana, D., de Gelder, G., Djarwadi, D. and Lorcery, M. (2022), ‘Active Back-Arc Thrust in Northwest Java, Indonesia’, Tectonics, 41(7). URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021TC007120
Asrurifak, M., Irsyam, M., Budiono, B., Triyoso, W. and Hendriyawan (2010), ‘Development of Spectral Hazard Map for Indonesia with a Return Period of 2500 Years using Probabilistic Method’, Civil Engineering Dimension, 12(1), 52–62. URL: https://doi.org/10.9744/ced.12.1.52-62
Atkinson, G. M. and Boore, D. M. (2003), ‘Empirical Ground-Motion Relations for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes and Their Application to Cascadia and Other Regions’, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93(4), 1703–1729. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020156
Baker, J. W., Bradley, B. A. and Stafford, P. J. (2021), Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108425056
Bommer, J. J., Papaspiliou, M. and Price, W. (2011), ‘Earthquake Response Spectra for Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants in the UK’, Nuclear Engineering and Design, 241(3), 968–977. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2011.01.029
Boore, D. M., Stewart, J. P., Seyhan, E. and Atkinson, G. M. (2014), ‘NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% Damped Response Spectra’, Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 1117–1153. URL: https://doi.org/10.1193/070113EQS184M
Borcherdt, R. D. (1994), ‘Estimates of Site-Dependent Response Spectra for Design (Methodology and Justification)’, Earthquake Spectra, 10(4), 617–653. URL: https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1585791
BPS-Statistics of Cianjur Regency (2024), ‘Cianjur Regency in Figures 2024’.
Campbell, K. W. and Bozorgnia, Y. (2014), ‘NGA-West2 Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5% Damped Response Spectra’, Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 1117–1153. URL: https://doi.org/10.1193/062913EQS175M
Cheng, J., Rong, Y., Magistrale, H., Chen, G. and Xu, X. (2019), ‘Earthquake Rupture Scaling Relations for Mainland China’, Seismological Research Letters, 91(1), 248–261. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190129
Chiou, B. S. J. and Youngs, R. R. (2014), ‘Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra’, Earthquake Spectra, 30(3), 1117–1153. URL: https://doi.org/10.1193/072813EQS219M
Cornell, C. A. (1968), ‘Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis’, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0580051583
Damanik, R., Gunawan, E., Widiyantoro, S., Supendi, P., Atmaja, F. W., Ardianto, Husni, Y. M., Zulfakriza and Sahara, D. P. (2023), ‘New Assessment of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Greater Jakarta Area, Indonesia’, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 14(1). URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2202805
Danielson, J. J. and Gesch, D. B. (2011), ‘Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010)’, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2011-1073. URL: http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find_Data/Products_and_Data_Available/GMTED2010
Daryono, M. R., Natawidjaja, D. H., Sapiie, B. and Cummins, P. (2019), ‘Earthquake Geology of the Lembang Fault, West Java, Indonesia’, Tectonophysics, 751, 180–191. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2018.12.014
Frankel, A. (1995), ‘Mapping Seismic Hazard in the Central and Eastern United States’, Seismological Research Letters, 66(4), 8–21. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.66.4.8
Gunawan, E. (2021), ‘An Assessment of Earthquake Scaling Relationships for Crustal Earthquakes in Indonesia’, Seismological Research Letters, 92(4), 2490–2497. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200267
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C. F. (1944), ‘Frequency of Earthquakes in California’, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4), 185–188. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185
Hall, R. and Spakman, W. (2015), ‘Mantle Structure and Tectonic History of SE Asia’, Tectonophysics, 658, 14–45. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.07.003
Irsyam, M., Cummins, P. R., Asrurifak, M., Faizal, L., Natawidjaja, D. H., Widiyantoro, S., Meilano, I., Triyoso, W., Rudiyanto, A., Hidayati, S., Ridwan, M., Hanifa, N. R. and Syahbana, A. J. (2020), ‘Development of the 2017 National Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia’, Earthquake Spectra, 36(1), 112–136. URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020951206
Irsyam, M., Hutabarat, D., Asrurifak, M., Imran, I., Widiyantoro, S., Hendriyawan, Sadisun, I., Hutapea, B., Afriansyah, T., Pindratno, H., Firmanti, A., Ridwan, M., Haridjono, S. W. and Pandhu, R. (2015), ‘Development of Seismic Risk Microzonation Maps of Jakarta City, in *Geotechnics for Catastrophic Flooding Events - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Geotechnical Engineering for Disaster Mitigation and Rehabilitation (GEDMAR 2014)’, pp. 35–47. January. URL: https://doi.org/10.1201/b17438-6
Irsyam, M., Widiyantoro, S., Natawidjaja, D., Meilano, I., Rudyanto, A., Hidayati, S., Triyoso, W., Hanifa, N. R., Djarwadi, D., Faizal, L. and Sunarjito (2017), Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia Tahun 2017, Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat.
Kramer, S. L. and Stewart, J. P. (2024), Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, 2nd Edition, CRC Press, Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Maheswari, R. (2024), ‘Comparative Seismic Analysis of G+20 RC Framed Structure Building with and without Shear Walls’, Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum, 10(3), 257–266. URL: https://doi.org/10.22146/jcef.12854
Marliyani, G. I., Arrowsmith, J. R. and Whipple, K. X. (2016), ‘Characterization of Slow Slip Rate Faults in Humid Areas: Cimandiri Fault Zone, Indonesia’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 121(12), 2287–2308. URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003846
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M. and Panzeri, L. (2014), ‘OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model’, Seismological Society of America. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087
Scholz, C. H. (2019), The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, 3rd Edition, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316681473
Schwartz, D. P. and Coppersmith, K. J. (1984), ‘Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones (USA)’, Journal of Geophysical Research, 89(B7), 5681–5698. URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05681
Setiyono, U., Gunawan, I., Priyobudi, Yatimantoro, T., Imananta, R. T., Ramdhan, M., Hidayanti, Anggraini, S., Rahayu, R. H., Hawati, P., Yogaswara, D. S., Julius, A. M., Apriani, M., Harvan, M., Simangunsong, G. and Kriswinarso, T. (2019), Katalog Gempabumi Signifikan dan Merusak 1821-2018, Jakarta: Pusat Gempabumi dan Tsunami Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika.
Stirling, M., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N., McVerry, G., Smith, W., Pettinga, J. and Barnes, P. (2008), ‘Seismic Hazard of the Canterbury Region, New Zealand: New Earthquake Source Model and Methodology’, Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 41(2), 51–67. URL: https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.41.2.51-67
Supendi, P., Winder, T., Rawlinson, N., Bacon, C. A., Palgunadi, K. H., Simanjuntak, A., Kurniawan, A., Widiyantoro, S., Nugraha, A. D., Shiddiqi, H. A., Ardianto, Daryono, Adi, S. P., Karnawati, D., Priyobudi, Marliyani, G. I., Imran, I. and Jatnika, J. (2023), ‘A Conjugate Fault Revealed by the Destructive Mw 5.6 (November 21, 2022) Cianjur Earthquake, West Java, Indonesia’, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 257(July), 105830. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2023.105830
Wald, D. J. and Allen, T. I. (2007), ‘Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions and Amplification’, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(5), 1379–1395. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060267
Widiyantoro, S., Irsyam, M., Faizal, L., Prakoso, W. A., Imran, I., Nazir, R., Soekarno, I., Wardani, S. P. R., Asrurifak, M., Sukamta, D., Hanifa, N. R., Djarwadi, D., Aldiamar, F., Hendarto, Alexander, N., Kadarman, J. S. and Rudyanto, A. (2022), Peta Deagregasi Bahaya Gempa Indonesia Untuk Perencanaan dan Evaluasi Infrastruktur Tahan Gempa, Jakarta: Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat.
Youngs, R. R. and Coppersmith, K. J. (1986), ‘Implications of Fault Slip Rates and Earthquake Recurrence Models to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates’, International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts, 23(4), 939–964. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(86)90651-0
Zhao, J. X., Zhang, J., Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi, T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H. K., Somerville, P. G., Fukushima, Y. and Fukushima, Y. (2006), ‘Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominant Period’, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(3), 898–913. URL: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122
Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright is granted to authors for the purpose of providing protection for articles written to describe experiments and their results. JCEF will protect and defend the work and reputation of the author and are also willing to address any allegations of violation, plagiarism, fraud, etc. against articles written and published by JCEF. JCEF is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0). The author holds the copyright and assigns the journal rights to the first publication (online and print) of the work simultaneously.