Spatial Dynamics Model of Land Availability and Population Growth Prediction in Bengkulu City

Della Ayu Lestari(1*), Dewi Susiloningtyas(2), Supriatna Supriatna(3)

(1) Marine Information System, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
(2) Geography Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(3) Geography Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author


Bengkulu City is the center for almost all activities and has a high population growth rate. Because of the high population growth rate, human needs for space and land will increase. Land availability will continue to decline, while it cannot increase the existing area. This will impact the carrying capacity of the environment, so it needs predictions for land availability. This study used a spatial dynamics model which is an analysis of the dynamic system model and the suitability of the built-up area. The carrying capacity to reach excellent quality when the length of the built-up area is 30-70% of the total area that can be used. The results showed that the built-up area will reach 70% in 2030, which means it will exceed the environmental carrying capacity threshold. The results showed there were differences between the distribution patterns of built-up area in the spatial dynamics model and Spatial Planning Bengkulu City in 2032 at Kampung Melayu Subdistrict, Selebar Subdistrict, Singaran Pati Subdistrict, and Sungai Serut Subdistrict.


Tacit Knowledge; Indigenous; Disaster; Hazard; Risk Reduction

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Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 225/E/KPT/2022, Vol 54 No 1 the Year 2022 - Vol 58 No 2 the Year 2026 (accreditation certificate download)

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)