Penggunaan data surveilans gabungan dan meteorologi untuk memprediksi demam berdarah dengue di Yogyakarta

https://doi.org/10.22146/bkm.26250

Dedik Sulistiawan(1), Lutfan Lazuardi(2*)

(1) Departemen Kebijakan dan Manajemen Kesehatan Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Gadjah Mada
(2) Departemen Kebijakan dan Manajemen Kesehatan Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Use of a combined surveillance and meteorological data for predicting dengue hemorrhagic fever in Yogyakarta

Purpose

This study aimed to predict the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using meteorological data such as rainfall, rainy days, air temperature, humidity, and dengue hemorrhagic fever surveillance data month by month in Northern Yogyakarta Municipality (Climatic Zone 138) through 2010-2016.

Method

This research was a descriptive study with a predictive design with temporal approach. This research processed secondary data of DHF incidence from Yogyakarta Municipality Health Office and climate variables from Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Yogyakarta from 2010 to 2016. Data were analyzed with univariate tests and presented in frequency distribution, bivariate analysis was performed using  Pearson/ Spearman correlation tests, and multivariate analysis used Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and generalized poisson regression tests.

Results

DHF incidence in Northern Yogyakarta Municipality (Climatic Zone 138) was associated with meteorological factors in the same month up to 3 months earlier. Predictors of DHF case were dengue incidence of previous month, rainfall 2 months earlier, current temperature, and relative humidity of the previous month.

Conclusion

The best prediction model of DHF incidence in Northern Yogyakarta Municipality (Climatic Zone 138) was a combination of surveillance and meteorological data. It is necessary to develop an awareness system of DHF incidence with meteorological database and surveillance in order to control the incidence of DHF in Yogyakarta Municipality.


Keywords


dengue; prediction; meteorological data; climatic zone



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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/bkm.26250

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