Prediksi spasio temporal rob berbasis model LISFLOOD FP di Pesisir Jakarta.
Aries Kristianto(1*), Usman Efendi(2)
(1) Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
(2) Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Tanjung Emas Semarang
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Abstrak Jakarta khususnya daerah pesisir sangat rentan dengan adanya permasalahan lingkungan berupa rob. Pemetaan daerah yang berpotensi terdampak rob sangat diperlukan guna menyusun upaya mitigasi. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan prediksi tinggi muka laut dengan model Delft3D dan digunakan untuk memprediksi daerah tergenang rob menggunakan model LISFLOOD FP pada tanggal 18 – 20 November 2019 di pesisir Jakarta. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa prediksi tinggi muka laut memiliki akurasi yang baik, dengan koefisien korelasi pada tingkat kuat sebesar 0,93 dan nilai RMSE sebesar 0,13 meter. Sementara itu, prediksi rob model LISFLOOD FP menunjukkan luas maksimum yang terjadi 2 hingga 3 jam setelah fase puncak tinggi muka laut dan menggenangi 8 kecamatan di Jakarta Utara dan Jakarta Barat.
Abstract Jakarta region especially the coastal areas are very vulnerable to environmental problems such as coastal inundation. Mapping of areas potentially affected by coastal inundation is needed to arrange mitigation efforts. In this study, sea level prediction was estimated using the Delft3D model and used to predict coastal inundation areas using the LISFLOOD FP model on 18-20 November 2019 on the coast of Jakarta. The results showed that the sea-level prediction model has good accuracy, with a correlation coefficient at a strong level of 0.92 and an RMSE error value of 0.13 meters. Meanwhile, coastal inundation prediction from the LISFLOOD FP model inundated 8 sub-districts in North Jakarta and West Jakarta and showed the maximum area in 2 to 3 hours after the peak phase of sea level.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.66594
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