Prediksi spasio temporal rob berbasis model LISFLOOD FP di Pesisir Jakarta.

https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.66594

Aries Kristianto(1*), Usman Efendi(2)

(1) Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
(2) Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Tanjung Emas Semarang
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Abstrak Jakarta khususnya daerah pesisir sangat rentan dengan adanya permasalahan lingkungan berupa rob. Pemetaan daerah yang berpotensi terdampak rob sangat diperlukan guna menyusun upaya mitigasi. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan prediksi tinggi muka laut dengan model Delft3D dan digunakan untuk memprediksi daerah tergenang rob menggunakan model LISFLOOD FP pada tanggal 18 – 20 November 2019 di pesisir Jakarta. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa prediksi tinggi muka laut memiliki akurasi yang baik, dengan koefisien korelasi pada tingkat kuat sebesar 0,93 dan nilai RMSE sebesar 0,13 meter. Sementara itu, prediksi rob model LISFLOOD FP menunjukkan luas maksimum yang terjadi 2 hingga 3 jam setelah fase puncak tinggi muka laut dan menggenangi 8 kecamatan di Jakarta Utara dan Jakarta Barat.

 

Abstract Jakarta region especially the coastal areas are very vulnerable to environmental problems such as coastal inundation. Mapping of areas potentially affected by coastal inundation is needed to arrange mitigation efforts. In this study, sea level prediction was estimated using the Delft3D model and used to predict coastal inundation areas using the LISFLOOD FP model on 18-20 November 2019 on the coast of Jakarta. The results showed that the sea-level prediction model has good accuracy, with a correlation coefficient at a strong level of 0.92 and an RMSE error value of 0.13 meters. Meanwhile, coastal inundation prediction from the LISFLOOD FP model inundated 8 sub-districts in North Jakarta and West Jakarta and showed the maximum area in 2 to 3 hours after the peak phase of sea level.

 


Keywords


prediksi banjir rob, tinggi muka laut, Delft3D, LISFLOOD FP



References

Aronica, G., Bates, P. D., & Horritt, M. S. (2002). Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE. Hydrological processes16(10), 2001-2016.

Bates, P. D., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Horritt, M. S., Nicholls, R. J., Wicks, J., & Hassan, M. A. A. M. (2005). Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications. Coastal Engineering, 52(9), 793-810.

Bates, P., Trigg, M., Neal, J., & Dabrowa, A. (2013). LISFLOOD-FP. User manual. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol. Bristol, UK.

Bluman, A. G. (2009). Elementary statistics: A step by step approach. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., & Tsimplis, M. N. (2013). Inter‐annual to decadal sea‐level variability in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas: The role of atmospheric forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(3), 1287-1301.

Dawson, R. J., Dickson, M. E., Nicholls, R. J., Hall, J. W., Walkden, M. J., Stansby, P. K., ... & Watkinson, A. R. (2009). Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change. Climatic Change, 95(1), 249-288.

Deltares. (2014). Delft3D-Flow User Manual. Delft. Deltares.

De Vries, S., Radermacher, M., De Schipper, M. A., & Stive, M. J. F. (2015). Tidal dynamics in the Sand Motor lagoon. Paper dipresentasikan pada the 36th IAHR World Congress, The Hague, the Netherlands, 28 June-3 July 2015. IAHR.

Ducruet, C. & Van der Horst, M. (2009). Transport integration at European ports: measuring the role and position of intermediaries. EJTIR, 9 (2), 121–142.

Fadlan, A., Sugianto, D. N., Kunarso, K., & Zainuri, M. (2017). Pengaruh Fenomena Monsun, El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap Anomali Tinggi Muka Laut di Utara dan Selatan Pulau Jawa. Paper dipresentasikan pada Seminar Nasional Hasil-Hasil Penelitian Perikanan dan Kelautan ke-VI. Fakultas Perikanan dan Ilmu Kelautan UNDIP, pp. 205-217

Fadlillah, L. N., Widyastuti, M., & Marfai, M. A. (2020). Comparison of tidal model using mike21 and delft3d-flow in part of Java Sea, Indonesia. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 451, No. 1, p. 012067). IOP Publishing.

Fatapour, E., Afroos, A., Nejad, B. A., Saremi, A., & Khosrowjerdi, A. (2020). Evaluation of the Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model LISFLOOD-FP in Floodplain Predictions of Various Return Periods. Archives of Pharmacy Practice1, 84.

Firdaus, A. (2019).  Sejumlah kebakaran dan banjir rob landa sebagian Jakarta. Antaranews.com, hal. 1. Diakses tanggal 10 Juni 2021 dari https://www.antaranews.com/berita/1169759/sejumlah-kebakaran-dan-banjir-rob-landa-sebagian-jakarta

Gallien, T. W., Sanders, B. F., & Flick, R. E. (2014). Urban coastal flood prediction: Integrating wave overtopping, flood defenses and drainage. Coastal Engineering, 91, 18-28.

Horstman, E., Dohmen-Janssen, M., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2013). Modeling tidal dynamics in a mangrove creek catchment in Delft3D. In Coastal dynamics (Vol. 2013, pp. 833-844).

Jamalludin, J., Fatoni, K. I., & Alam, T. M. (2016). Identifikasi Banjir Rob Periode 2013–2015 di Kawasan Pantai Utara Jakarta. Jurnal Chart Datum2(2), 105-116.

Marfai, M.A., Mardiatno, D., Cahyadi, A., Nucifera, F. dan Prihatno, H. (2013). Pemodelan Spasial Bahaya Banjir Rob Berdasarkan Skenario Perubahan Iklim dan Dampaknya di Pesisir Pekalongan. Jurnal Bumi Lestari, Vol. 13(2), 244-256.

Mundir. (2013). Statistika Pendidikan. Jember: Pustaka Pelajar.

Nafisah, D., Setiyono, H., & Hariyadi, H. (2017). Pemetaan Sebaran Genangan Rob di Pesisir Bonang, Kabupaten Demak. Journal of Oceanography, 6(3), 494-499.

Neal, J., Schumann, G., Fewtrell, T., Budimir, M., Bates, P., & Mason, D. (2011). Evaluating a new LISFLOOD‐FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 4(2), 88-95.

Nugroho, S. H. (2013). Prediksi luas genangan pasang surut (rob) berdasarkan analisis data spasial di Kota Semarang, Indonesia. Jurnal Lingkungan dan Bencana Geologi, 4(1), 71-87.

Oblak, R., Bistricic, A. & Jugovic, A. (2013). Publicprivate partnership-management model of Croatian seaports. Management, 18 (1), 79–102.

Putra, D. R., & Marfai, M. A. (2012). Identifikasi Dampak Banjir Genangan (Rob) Terhadap Lingkungan Permukiman Di Kecamatan Pademangan Jakarta Utara. Jurnal Bumi Indonesia, 1(1).

Ramadhan, P., Widada, S., & Subardjo, P. (2015). Dampak Kenaikan Muka Laut Terhadap Genangan Rob di Kecamatan Pademangan, Jakarta Utara. Journal of Oceanography, 4(1), 159-165.

Seenath, A. (2015). Modeling coastal flood vulnerability: Does spatially-distributed friction improve the prediction of flood extent? Applied Geography 64:97–107.

Seenath, A., Wilson, M., & Miller, K. (2016). Hydrodynamic versus GIS modelling for coastal flood vulnerability assessment: Which is better for guiding coastal management?. Ocean & Coastal Management, 120, 99-109.

Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., ... & Powers, J. G. (2008). A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, NCAR Technical Note. National Center for Atmospheric Research: Boulder, CO, USA.

Symonds, A. M., Vijverberg, T., Post, S., Van Der Spek, B. J., Henrotte, J., & Sokolewicz, M. (2016). Comparison between Mike 21 FM, Delft3D and Delft3D FM flow models of western port bay, Australia. COASTAL ENGINEERING, 2.

Wilks, D. S. (2011). Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences (Vol. 100). Academic press.

Wolf, J. (2008). Coupled wave and surge modelling and implications for coastal flooding. Advances in Geosciences, 17, 19-22.

Zafarparandeh, I., & Lazoglu, I. (2012). Application of the finite element method in spinal implant design and manufacture. The design and manufacture of medical devices, 153-183.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/mgi.66594

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 18

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2021 Aries Kristianto, Usman Efendi

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.


 

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 30e/KPT/2018

Volume 31 No 2 the Year 2017 for Volume 35 No 2 the Year 2021

ISSN  0215-1790 (print) ISSN 2540-945X  (online)

 

website statistics Statistik MGI