HUBUNGAN ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN INDUSTRI, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP KONSENTRASI INDUSTRI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI JAWA TIMUR
Bambang Heru Santosa(1*)
(1) Badan Pusat Statistik
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Objectives of the study is to analyze causal relationships among five variables. The first three, development of industry influenced to the development of economy (economic growth), to concentration of industry, and to welfare. Second, concentration of industry pushed the economic growth. The third three, the international trade influenced to concentration of industry, to economic growth, and to welfare. Finally, the impact of economic growth to welfare. This analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) and found that five of eight relationships were significant and the rest were insignificant. First, development of industry negatively influenced concentration of industry. Second, international trade pushed concentration of industry. Third, concentration of industry also pushed economic growth. Fourth, international trade positively influenced economic growth. Finally, the economic growth positively influenced welfare. The development of industry was insignificant influence to the economic growth, and positively influenced to welfare. It is negativite relation was caused by dispersion of the location of industry, so resulted low economies of scale. International trade was negatively influenced welfare. Policy implication obtained from the whole analyses, especially for the East Java Provincial Government. In order to improve performance of the economy, it is suggested employing the Integrated Territory-provincial Planning based on comparative advantage among regions.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Amiti, Mary. 1998. “New Trade Theories and Industrial Location in the EU: A Survey of Evidence”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 14 (2). Oxford University Press.
Arsyad, Lincolin. 1999. Pengantar Perencanaan dan Pembangunan Ekonomi Daerah. Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Arifin, Zainal dan Mudrajad Kuncoro. 2002. ”Konsentrasi Spasial dan Dinamika Pertumbuhan Industri Manufaktur di Jawa Timur”. Empirika 11 (1): 49-63. Surakarta: BPPE-FEUM.
Athukorala, Prema-chandra dan Bambang Heru Santosa. 1997. “Gains from Indonesian Export Growth: Do Linkages Matter?”. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 33 (2), Canberra: The Australian National University. The Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Division of Economics, Indonesian Project.
Bank Indonesia. Indonesian Financial Statistics. publikasi berseri 1986 - 2002.
Badan Pusat Statistik. 2001. Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi-provinsi di Indonesia Menurut Lapangan Usaha.
Badan Pusat Statistik. 2003. Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi-provinsi di Indonesia Menurut Lapangan Usaha.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur. 1999. Jawa Timur Dalam Angka 1998. Surabaya: BPS Jatim.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur. 2002. Indikator Makro Sosial dan Ekonomi Jawa Timur. Surabaya.
Baldwin, Richard E. dan Philippe Martin. 2004. Agglomeration and Regional Growth, Graduate Institute of International Studies. Geneva.
Baldwin, Richard E., R. Forslid, P. Martin, G. Ottaviono, dan F. Robert-Nicoud. 2004. Agglomeration and Growth With and Without Capital Mobility. Graduate Institute of International Studies. Geneva.
Carbaugh, Robert J. 1992. International Economics. Fourth Edition. California: Wadsworth Publishing Company.
Dick, Howard. 1993. “East Java in a Regional Perspective”. In Dick, Fox, and Mackie (eds), Balanced Development - East Java in the New Order, Singapore: Oxford University Press.
Dick, Howard; Fox, James, J.; Mackie, Jamie. 1997. “Sektor Manufaktur”. Balanced Development – East Java in the New Order, diterjemahkan oleh Bambang Sumantri, Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Feder, Gershon. 1983. “On Exports and Economic Growth”. Journal of Develop-ment Economics February/April, 12: 59-73.
Findlay, Ronald. 1984. “Trade and Develop-ment: Theory and Asian Experience”. Asian Development Review 2 (1): 23-42.
Ghozali, Imam. 2004. Model Persamaan structural, Konsep dan Aplikasi dengan Program AMOS ver. 5.0, Semarang - Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro
Gujarati, Domodar N. 1988. Basic Econo-metrics. McGraw-Hill Book Co., Singapore.
Hill, Hal. 1977. Indonesia’s Industrial Transformation. Singapore: Institute of South East Asean Studies.
Hill, Hal. 1987. “Concentration in Indonesian Manufacturing”. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 23 (2)
Hill, Hal. 1990. Foreign Investment and Industrialization. diterjemahkan oleh Burhanuddin Abdullah. Jakarta: LP3ES.
Hirschman, Albert O. 1958. The Strategy of Economic Development. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
Hayter, Roger. 2000. The Dynamics of Industrial Location – The Factory, the Firm and the Production System. Toronto: John Wiley & Sons.
Hess, Simon. 2002. Economic Geography and the Implications of a Free Trade Area within SADC, mimeo, makalah disampai-kan pada 2002 Annual Forum at Glenburn Lodge Muldersdrift.
Kmenta, Jam. 1986. Elements of Econometrics 2nd Ed. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company.
Krugman, Paul R. 1980. “Scale Economic, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade”. American Economic Review 70: 950-9.
Krugman, Paul R. 1991. Geography and Trade. Leuven: Leuven University Press.
Krugman, Paul R., dan Maurice Obstfeld. 1991. Ekonomi Internasional, Teori dan Kebijakan, Edisi Kedua (Jakarta: PAU-FE Universitas Indonesia dan HarperCollinsCollegePublishers. diterjemahkan oleh Faisal H. Basri. Jakarta: PT RajaGrafindo Persada, 2002.
Krugman, Paul R., dan Maurice Obstfeld. 1994. International Economics, Theory and Policy. Third Edition, New York: HarperCollinsCollegePublishers.
Kuncoro, Mudrajad. 2001. “Regional Clustering of Indonesia’s Manufacturing Industry: A Spatial Analysis with Geographic Information System (GIS)”. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 3 (3)
Kuncoro, Mudrajad. 2002. Analisis Spasial dan Regional, Studi Aglomerasi dan Kluster Industri Indonesia. Yogyakarta: UPP AMP YKPN.
Kuncoro, Ari. 2002. “The New Laws of Decentralization and Corruption in Indonesia: Examination of Provincial and District Data”. In Resosudarmo, Alisyahbana, and Brojonegoro (eds), Indonesia’s Sustainable Development in a Decentralization Era. Jakarta: Indonesian Regional Science Association)
Mackie, Jamie dan Jumilah Zain. 1991. ”Balanced Growth and Diversification”. In Hill Unity and Diversity. Singapore: Oxford University Press.
Nicholson, Walter. 1987. Microeconomic Theory Basic Principles and Extensions, 3rd ed., Hong Kong: HRW International Editions.
Pamungkas, Sri-Bintang. 1990. “Memahami Perekonomian dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Indonesia”. Pengantar pada Hal Hill. Foreign Investment and Industrialization in Indonesia. Diterjemahkan oleh Burhanuddin Abdullah (Jakarta: LP3ES).
Perkins, Dwight H., Steven Radelet, Donald R. Snodgrass, Malcolm Gillis, dan Michael Roemer. 2001. Economics of Development, fifth edition. London: W.W. Norton & Company.
Republik Indonesia. 1997. Undang-undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 16 Tahun 1997, Tentang Statistik.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 1994. Export Expansion and the Indonesian Economy: an Input-Output Approach. Thesis Master of Economics, Melbourne: La Trobe University.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 1998a. ”Alternatif Pembangunan Ekonomi Jatim”. Surabaya Post, 3 Juli.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 1998b. Profil Industri Besar/Sedang Jawa Timur, mimeo, makalah disampaikan pada Konsultasi Regional PDRB Se Jawa dan Bali (Malang, 6 - 9 September).
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 2000. “Naiknya Investasi Belum Tentu Kabar Gembira”. Kompas, 3 Nopember.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 2001. ”Perekonomian Jawa Timur Dari Struktur Industri”. East Java Business Review, Centre for Business & Industrial Studies (CBIS) Universitas Surabaya, Nov - Des 2000, dan Jan - Peb.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 2003. ”Ekonomi Indonesia: Pseudo Economic Growth”. Jawa Pos 29 Oktober.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 2006. Pengaruh Perkembangan Industri Perdagangan Internasional Terhadap Konsentrasi Industri dan Perkembangan Ekonomi serta Kesejahteraan Rakyat di Jawa Timur. Disertasi Universitas Airlangga. Tidak dipublikasi.
Santosa, Bambang Heru. 2006b. “Pertum-buhan Ekonomi dan Kemiskinan”. Kompas 26 Agustus.
Santosa, Bambang Heru dan Heath McMichael. 2004. “Industrial Develop-ment in East Java: A Special Case?”. Working Papers in Trade and Development No. 2004/07, Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University.
Smith, David M. 1971. Industrial Location An Economic Geographical Analysis. London: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Solimun. 2003. Structural Equation Modeling LISREL dan AMOS. Fakultas MIPA Universitas Brawijaya Malang.
Tambunan, T.H. 2001. Transformasi Ekonomi di Indonesia – Teori & Penemuan Empiris. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
United Nations. 1968. International Recommendations for Industrial Statistics – Statistical Papers. Series M No. 48, New York: United Nations.
US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration. US Cencus Bureau. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2004 – 2005. The National Data Book.
Wahyuddin, M. 2004. Industri dan Orientasi Ekspor: Dinamika dan Analisis Spasial, Muhammadiyah University Press. Surakarta.
World Bank. 1993. The East Asian Miracle, Economic Growth and Public Policy. New York: Oxford University Press.
World Bank. 1998. Indonesia in Crisis: A Macroeconomic Update. (Washington, D.C)
Yamane, Taro. 1973. Statistics an Introductory Analysis. Tokyo: Harper International Edition.
Yusuf, Shahid, dan Simon J. Evenett. 2002. “Can East Asia Compete?”, Innovation for Global Markets, Washington D.C., the World Bank.
Article Metrics
Abstract views : 8463
| 
views : 3357
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2006 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
| Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business |
| The Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (print ISSN 2085-8272; online ISSN 2338-5847) is published by the Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia. The content of this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License |
| © 2019 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business | Visitor Statistics |