SELEKSI MODEL PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA 1973-1987



Wihana Kirana Jaya(1*)

(1) Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Perkembangan empirik teori permintaan uang di Indonesia selama dua
dasawarsa telah didominasi oleh penggunaan Model Penyesuaian Parsial (Partial
Adjustment Model = PAM) seperti yang pernah dilakukan oleh Aghevli (1977),
Boediono (1985), Nasution (1985) dan Parikh et al (1985). Adapun perkembangan
teori permintaan uang dewasa ini yaitu penggunaan Model Penyesuaian Parsial telah
banyak dikritik oleh para ahli ekonomi (Cuthbertson, 1988), seperti kasus
overshooting di dalam perubahan tingkat bunga dan pendapatan riil. Demikian juga
adanya masalah autokorelasi serta intepretasi koefisien variabel yang dijelaskan
selang (Goodfriend, 1985).


Sejalan dengan perkembangan teori permintaan uang dan model dinamik, para
ahli ekonomi dan ekonometri telah mengembangkan salah satu Model Koreksi
Kesalahan (Error-Correction Model = ECM) seperti yang pernah dilakukan oleh
Hendry et al. (1984), Domowitz and Elbadawi (1987), Gupta and Moazzami (1988)
dan Colomoris and Domowitz (1989) dan sudah diterapkan pada kasus di negara
sedang berkembahg (lihat Insukindro, 1990), sedang para ahli ekonomi lain seperti
Laidler (1987), Goodhart (1984), dan Cuthbertson (1986, 1988) telah mengangkat
kembali teori permintaan uang untuk Model Cadangan Penyangga (Buffer Stock) atau
Model Penyerap Syok (Shock-Absorber Model = SAM) dan ini sangat relevan jika
pasar uang berada dalam ketidakseimbangan.


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References

Aghevli, B. 1977. Money, Prices and the Balance of Payments: Indonesia 1968-73, Journal Development Studies, 13: 37-57. Boediono, 1985. Demand for Money in Indonesia, 1975-1984, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 12: 74-94 Carr, J. and Darby, M. J. 1981. The Role of Money Supply Shocks in the Short run Demand for Money, Journal of Monetary Economics, 8,2: 183-200. Colomoris and Domowitz, I. 1989. Asset Substitution, Money Demand, and the Inflation Process in Brazil, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21:78-89. Cuthbertson, K. 1986. Price Expectation and Lags in the Demand for Money, Scottish Journal of Political Economy and Regulation of Financial Market, London Macmillan. Cuthbertson, K. 1988. The Demand for Ml: A Forward Looking Buffer Stock Model, Oxford Economic Papers, 110-131 Davidson, H. 1984. Money Disequilibrium: An Approach to Modelling Monetary Phenomena in the UK, London, Macmillan. Domowitz, I. and Elbadawi, I. 1987. An Error-Correction Approach to Money Demand : The Case of the Sudan, Journal of Development Economics, 26: 257-475. Fiege, E. I. 1967. Expectations and Adjustments in the Monetary Sector, American Economics Association: 462-473. Goodfriend, M. 1985. Reinterpreting Money Demand Regressions, Carnergie Rocherter Series on Public Policy, 22: 207- 242. Harvey, A. 1986. Econometrics Time Series Philip Allan, London. Hendry, D. P. and Sargan, J. D. 1984. Dynamic Specification, in Z. Griliches et al. (eds.), Handbook Econometrics, II, Chapter 18. Gupta, K. L. and Moazzami, I. 1988. Dynamic Specification and the Demand for Money Function, Economic Letter, 27 : 229-231. Insukindro 1984. A Money Supply Model for Indonesia, Occasional Papers, Faculty of Economics, Gadjah Mada University, December. __________1990. Model Koreksi Kesalahan untuk Permintaan Impor Bahan Bakar Minyak di Indonesia, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, No I. Kennan, J. 1979. The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations, Econometrica, 47: 1441-1455. Laidler, D. 1987. Buffer-Stock Money and the Transmission Mechanism, Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Nasution, A. 1985. Financial Institution and Policies in Indonesia, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. Parikh, A. A. B. and Sundrum, R. M. 1985. An Econometric Model of the Monetary Sector in Indonesia, Journal of Development Studies, 21: 406-421. Pesaran, B. 1987. Datafit Oxford University Press. Wihana, K. J. 1990. A Buffer-Stock Approach to Money Demand the Case of Indonesia 1973-1987, Thesis (unpublished), University of Birmingham, England.




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