Rainfall variability analysis using Precipitation Concentration Index: a case study of the western agro-climatic zone of Punjab, India


Kishan Singh Rawat(1*), Raj Kumar Pal(2), Sudhir Kumar Singh(3)

(1) Geo-Informatics, Civil Engineering Department, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University) Dehradun - 248002, Uttrakhand, India
(2) Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, Bathinda, Punjab, India
(3) K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric & Ocean Studies, IIDS, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj-211002 (U.P.), India
(*) Corresponding Author


Due to climate change, the rainfall pattern has changed, which ultimately either cause flood or drought in any region of the world. Hence, a rainfall variability analysis helps to manage the water resources better. Rainfall variability analysis of a long term at particular area reveals vital information about past and future climate. The study's objective was to analyse the rainfall variability and intensity of long term monthly rainfall data (1982–2018) using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Data was collected from Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, located at Bathinda, India. The PCI was calculated for the annual, winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon season, and decadal scale. Results have outlined that PCIAnnual ranges from the lowest of 14.96 in 2006 to the highest of 43.82 in 2000, and the average of 37 years is 23.22. About ≈59.5% of the year PCIAnnual was characterised by Strong Irregularity of Precipitation Distribution (SIPD, PCIAnnual> 20), an indication of SIPD within the 37 years. While ≈2.7% of the year recorded annual value within the moderate irregular range (10<PCIAnuual<15), which indicates an irregular rainfall distribution (MIPD) and concentration across the months. Similarly, the precipitation concentration in China was also found strongly irregular in the western and northern parts of the northwest and the northern region of the Tibetan Plateau. The study recommends that the Bathinda Development Authority (BDA) may use and adopt these results and redevelop the existing groundwater recharge structures (pond) and artificial recharge structures.


Climate Changes, Precipitation Concentration Index, Variability


Adegun O, Balogun I, Adeaga O (2012) Precipitation Concentration Changes in Owerri and Enugu. Hydrology for Disaster Management, special publication of NAHS.

Alemu, M. M., & Bawoke, G. T. (2020). Analysis of spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change11(4), 1505-1520.

Apaydin H, Erpul G, Bayramin I, Gabriels D (2006) Evaluation of Indices fo characterising the distribution and concentration of precipitation: A case for the region of south eastern Anatolia Project, Turkey. J Hydrol 328: 726-732.

Banda, V. D., Dzwairo, R. B., Singh, S. K., & Kanyerere, T. (2021). Trend analysis of selected hydro-meteorological variables for the Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa. Journal of Water and Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.260

Bartolini, G., Grifoni, D., Magno, R., Torrigiani, T., & Gozzini, B. (2018). Changes in temporal distribution of precipitation in a Mediterranean area (Tuscany, Italy) 1955–2013. International Journal of Climatology, 38(3), 1366-1374.

Coscarelli, R. A., & Caloiero, T. (2012). Analysis of daily and monthly rainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region). Journal of Hydrology, 416, 145-156.

De-Luis M, Gonzales-Hudalgo JC, Brunette M, Longares LA (2011) Precipitation Concentration Changes in Spain 1946-2005. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences 11: 1259-1265.

Du, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Z., Liu, K., & Cheng, L. (2020). Spatial and temporal characteristics of the daily precipitation concentration index over China from 1979 to 2015. Hydrology Research, 51(3), 562-582.

Ezemonye MN, Emeribe CN (2011) Correlogram Analysis of Trend and Cycles in Rainfall over Southeastern Nigeria. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences 8: 325-333.

Gajbhiye, S., Meshram, C., Singh, S. K., Srivastava, P. K., & Islam, T. (2016). Precipitation trend analysis of Sindh River basin, India, from 102‐year record (1901–2002). Atmospheric Science Letters17(1), 71-77.

Hernando D, Romana MG (2015) Estimating the Rainfall Erosivity Factor from Monthly Precipitation Data in the Madrid Region (Spain). J HydrolHydromech 63: 55-62.

Iskander SM, Rajib MA, Rahman MM (2014) Trending Regional Precipitation Distribution and Intensity: Use of Climatic Indices. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 4: 385-393.

Kumbuyo CP, Yasuda H, Kitamura Y, Shimizu K (2014) Fluctuation of Rainfall Time Series in Malawi: An Analysis of Selected Areas. Geofizika 31.

Li, C., Zhang, H., Singh, V. P., Fan, J., Wei, X., Yang, J., & Wei, X. (2020). Investigating variations of precipitation concentration in the transitional zone between Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau in China: Implications for regional impacts of AO and WPSH. Plos one, 15(11), e0238709.

Luis, M. D., Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C., Brunetti, M., & Longares, L. A. (2011). Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946–2005. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(5), 1259-1265.

Mahato, L. L., Kumar, M., Suryavanshi, S., Singh, S. K., & Lal, D. (2021). Statistical investigation of long-term meteorological data to understand the variability in climate: a case study of Jharkhand, India. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-22.

McGuire B, Macon I, Kilburn C (2002) Natural Hazards and Environmental Change. Arnold, London, 13-61.

Meshram, S. G., Singh, S. K., Meshram, C., Deo, R. C., & Ambade, B. (2018). Statistical evaluation of rainfall time series in concurrence with agriculture and water resources of Ken River basin, Central India (1901–2010). Theoretical and applied climatology134(3), 1231-1243.

Mishra, A.K. 2016. Monitoring Tamil Nadu flood of 2015 using satellite remote sensing Natural Hazards, 82 (2), 1431–1434.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2249-5

Nzoiwu PC (2015) An Preliminary assessment of the Effects of Climate Variability and Climate change on Agulu Lake, Anambra State. Unpublished MSc Thesis, The University of Ibadan, Oyo State.

Odjugo PA (2010a) General Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria. J Hum Ecol 29: 47-55.

Odjugo PA (2010b) Regional evidence of climate change in Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning 3: 142-150.

Oliver JE (1980) Monthly Precipitation Distribution: A Comparative Index. Professional Geographer 32: 300-309.

Rawat, K. S., Mishra, A. K., Singh, S. K., Kumar, S., & Bahuguna, A. (2018) Rainfall trend analysis using non parametric test and Satellite data of Pauri Garhwal District of Uttarakhand, India. 11(9): 1098-1107

Saha S. (2020). Precipitation concentration index (PCI) a tool to evaluate the distribution of Rainfall, Barishal, Bangladesh. International Journal of Advanced Geosciences, 8(2). 193-1996.

Tolika, K. (2019). On the analysis of the temporal precipitation distribution over Greece using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI): annual, seasonal, monthly analysis and association with the atmospheric circulation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3), 2303-2319.

Valli M, Sree KS, Krishna IVM (2013) Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index and Rainfall Prediction in various Agro Climate Zones of Andhra Pradesh, India. Inter Research Journal EnvSci 2: 53-61.

Zhang, K., Yao, Y., Qian, X., & Wang, J. (2019). Various characteristics of precipitation concentration index and its cause analysis in China between 1960 and 2016. International Journal of Climatology, 39(12), 4648-4658.

Ziv, B., Saaroni, H., Pargament, R., Harpaz, T., & Alpert, P. (2014). Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large-scale variability. Regional Environmental Change, 14(5), 1751-1764.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.64890

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 290


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2021 kishan singh rawat

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 30/E/KPT/2018, Vol 50 No 1 the Year 2018 - Vol 54 No 2 the Year 2022

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)