Isu Perubahan Iklim Dalam Konteks Keamanan Dan Ketahanan Nasional

https://doi.org/10.22146/jkn.37734

Adi Subiyanto(1*), Rizaldi Boer(2), Edvin Aldrian(3), Perdinan Perdinan(4), Rilus Kinseng(5)

(1) Prodi Klimatologi, Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) & Angkatan Udara (TNI AU)
(2) Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management (CCROM), Bogor Agricultural University
(3) IPCC Working Group I Vice Chair, Indonesia
(4) Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, FMIPA, IPB
(5) Departemen Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Masyarakat, FEMA, IPB
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


ABSTRACT

Climat change (CC) which contributed to increased conflict/war had implicitly emerged in the IPCC’s 3rd and 4th reports (IPCC, 2001; 2007); meanwhile on the 5th report (IPCC, 2014) emphasized more on human security. The risk/impact of CC to human security was shown through interaction between livelihood, conflict, culture, and migration. The purpose of the stydy was to gained an understanding of the correlation between CC and the occurrence of conflict/war; knowing the  impacts of CC on national resilience; explaining the phenomenon of CC on national resilience; and explained the linkages between human security and national resilience.This research was done through conceptual and comparative approach.The results showed that CC did not contribute directly to the occurrence of conflict/war;the impact of CC disrupts people's livelihoods thereby reducing national resilience; CC could be viewed as a disturbance and/or threat; and basically national resilience and human security could be synchronized because both of them seeked to brought guarantee for the security, safety, and individual prosperity.

ABSTRAK 

Perubahan iklim (PI) diasumsikan berkontribusi terhadap meningkatnya konflik/perang. Pandangan tersebut secara implisit telah muncul dalam laporan Panel Antarpemerintah tentang Perubahan Iklim(IPCC)ke-3 (IPCC TAR, 2001) dan ke-4 (IPCC AR4, 2007); sebaliknya pada laporan ke-5 (IPCC AR5, 2014) memfokuskan pada keamanan manusia. Skema risiko PI pada keamanan manusia ditunjukkan melalui interaksi antara mata pencaharian, konflik, budaya, dan migrasi. Penelitian ini untuk menjelaskan korelasi antara PI dengan terjadinya konflik/perang; menggambarkan dampak PI bagi ketahanan nasional (Tannas); menjelaskan isu PI ditinjau dari konsepTannas; dan menjelaskan keterkaitan antara  keamanan manusia dengan Tannas. Penelitian dilakukan melalui dua pendekatan, yaitu: pendekatan konseptual dan pendekatan komparatif.  Diperoleh hasil bahwa PI tidak berkorelasi langsung terhadap terjadinya konflik/perang; PI mengganggu mata pencaharian masyarakat, sehingga menurunkan Tannas; dalam konsep Tannas, PI merupakan gangguan dan atau ancaman; dan Tannas dapat disetarakan dengan keamanan manusia karena keduanya berupaya menghadirkan penjaminan keamanan, keselamatan, dan kesejahteraan individu.

 

 

 


Keywords


keamanan manusia; ketahanan nasional; konflik; perubahan iklim

Full Text:

PDF


References

Acharya, Amitav., 2001, ‘Human Security: East Versus West?’. Institute of Defenceand Strategic Studies Singapore, tersedia di https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/rsis-pubs/WP17.pdf, diakses pada 5 Juli 2018.

Aldrian, E., Karmini, M., Budiman., 2011, Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim di Indonesia, Pusat Perubahan Iklim dan Kualitas Udara Kedeputian Bidang Klimatologi, Jakarta: BMKG,

Baker, Aryn., 2015, ‘How climate change is behind the surge of migrants to Europe’, Time Magazine (7 September), tersedia di http://time.com/4024210/climatechange-migrants/diakses pada 22 Juni 2018.

Barnet, J & Adger, W., 2007, ‘Climate change, human security and violent Conflict’, Geographical Journal on Climate Change, Vol. 27(3), hh. 36-47.

Bergholt, D., & Lujala, P., 2012,‘Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth,and armed civil conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), hh. 147-162

Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., & Koubi, V., 2012,‘Environmental changes and violentconflict’. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1), 015601, hh. 1-8.

Black, R., Adger, N., Arnell NW., Dercon S., Geddes A&Thomas D., 2011, ‘The effect of environmental change on human migration’,Global Environmental Change, 21(1)

BMKG, 2018. ‘Iklim: Perubahan Iklim’, tersedia di http://www.bmkg.go.id/iklim/?p=proyeksi-perubahan-iklim, diakses pada 22 Juni 2018

BNPB., 2018. Tren Kejadian Bencana 10 Tahun terahir (2008-2017), tersedia di http://bnpb.cloud/dibi/laporan4, diakses pada 26 September 2018

BPPI, 2015, Buku Putih Pertahanan Indonesia (BPPI), Jakarta :Kementerian Pertahanan RI,

Brochmann, M., & Gleditsch, N. P., 2012, ‘Shared rivers and conflict - A reconsideration’, Political Geography, 31(8), hh. 519-527.

Buhaug, H., 2010, ‘Climate not to blame for African civil wars’,PNAS, 107, hh. 16477-16482.

CNA Military Advisory Board (CNA-MAB), 2007, ‘National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change’, tersedia di https://www.cna.org/mab/reports, diakses pada 2 Juli 2018.

Collins, Alan., 2005, Security and Southeast Asia: Domestic, Regional, and Global Issues, New Delhi.:Viva Books Private Limited,

Dabelko, G. D., 2008, ‘An uncommon peace: environment, development and the global security agenda’, Environment, Vol. 50, No. 3, hh. 32-45.

De Châtel, Francesca., 2014,‘The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: Untangling the triggers of the revolution’, Middle Eastern Studies, 50(4), hh. 521-535.

Dellmuth, L M; Gustafsson M T; Bremberg N., Mobjork M & Maria, T G, 2017, ‘Intergovernmental organizations and climate security: advancing the research agenda’, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9, 1.

Dinshaw, Fram., 2015, ‘This is what a climate refugee looks like’. National Observer (4 September), tersedia di http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/09/04/news/what-climate-refugee-looks, diakses pada 22 Juni 2018.

Durham, W., 1979, Scarcity and survival in Central America: The ecological origins of the Soccer War. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

DWP, 2016, ‘Defence White Paper (DWP)’, tersedia di http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/Docs/2016-Defence-White-Paper.pdf, diakses pada 15 Juni 2018.

Fearon, James D&Laitin, David D., 2003, ‘Additional Tables for Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, tersedia di http://www.stanford.edu/group/ethnic/ diakses pada 22 Juni 2018.

Fröhlich, Christiane., 2016, ‘Climate migrants as protestors? Dispelling misconceptions about global environmental change in pre-revolutionary Syria’, Contemporary Levant, 1(1), hh. 38-50. Doi: 10.1080/20581831.2016.1149355

Gleditsch, N. P., 2012, ‘Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), hh. 4-9.

Hague, Rod & Harrop, Martin., 2013, Comparative Goverment and Politics: An Introduction, London: Palgrave Macmillan, hh. 364-366.

Homer, Dixon, T. F., 1999, Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press

Hsiang, S. Meng & Cane., 2011, ‘Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate’, Nature, 476, hh. 438-440.

Human Security Centre (HSC)., 2005, ‘Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century’, tersedia di http://www.humansecurityreport.info/, diakses pada 30 Juni 2018.

IPCC., 2001, ‘Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’, In third assessment report, Climate change 2001, Geneva/Cambridge, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

IPCC., 2007, ‘Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’, In fourth assessment report, Climate change 2007, Geneva/Cambridge, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

IPCC., 2014,‘Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability’, IPCC working group II contribution to AR5, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. in press tersedia di www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/, diakses pada 17 Juni 2018.

Karl, TL., 1997, The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: California University Press.

Kawser, M A and Samad, A., 2016, “Political history of Farakka Barrage and its effects on environment in Bangladesh”. Bandung, Journal of Global South (2016) 3:16 DOI 10.1186/s40728-015-0027-5

Khalid, Iram. Bangladesh Water Concern. A Research Journal of South Asian Studies Vol. 25, No. 1, January-June 2010, pp.73-87

Klare, MT., 2001, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, New York: Henry Holt.

Klingman, David., 1980, ‘Temporal and spatial diffusion in the comparative analysis of social change’, American political science review, Vol. 74 No. 1, hh.123-137

Koubi, V., Bernauer, T., Kalbhenn, A., & Spilker, G., 2012, ‘Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), hh. 113-127

Lemhannas, 2015, Sistem Dinamika Pengukuran Ketahanan Nasional dan Simulasi Kebijakan Publik, Jakarta.: Lemhannas RI,

Miguel, E., Satyanath, S & Sergenti, E., 2004, ‘Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 112, No. 4

National Intelligence Council (NIC)., 2012, ‘Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds’, Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council, h. 30

Olufemi, F. J & Samson, A. O., 2012, ‘Climate Change, Environment and Conflicts in Nigeria’, British Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, ISSN: 2046-9578, Vol.6 No.1

Perwita, Banyu., 2008, ‘Problematika Hubungan TNI dan Polri dalam Menangani Terorisme dan Kejahatan Lintas Batas’, Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional, Vol. 4, No. 1

QDR., 2010, ‘Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR)’, US Department of Defence, tersedia di http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/defenseReviews/QDR/QDR_as_of_29JAN10_1600.pdf, diakses pada 20 Juni 2018.

QDR., 2014, ‘Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR)’, US Department of Defence, tersedia di http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/defenseReviews/QDR/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf, diakses pada 15 Mei 2018.

Rahmasari, L., 2011, ‘Strategi Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim Bagi Masyarakat Pesisir. Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Maritim X (1), hh. 1-11

Schoch, C., 2011, ‘Rethingking climate change as a security threat’, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED): October, tersedia di http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/17101IIED.pdf? , diakses pada 10 Juni 2018.

Selby, Jan., Dahi Omar S., Fröhlich, C&Hulme M., 2017, ‘Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited’, Political Geography (60), hh. 232-244

Soekanto, S & Mamuji, S., 2001, Penelitian Hukum Normatif (Suatu Tinjauan Singkat), Jakarta: Rajawali Pers

Soemitro, R H., 1988, Metodologi Penelitian Hukum dan Jurimetri, Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.

Stern, Nicholas., 2008, ‘The Economics of Climate Change’. American Economic Review, Vol. 98 (2), hh. 1-37. DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.2.1, tersedia di http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.98.2.1, diakses pada 20 Juni 2018.

Suradinata, Ermaya., 2005,‘Hukum Dasar Geopolitik dan Geostrategi Dalam Kerangka Keutuhan NKRI’, Jakarta: Suara Bebas.

Susetyo, Heru., 2008, ‘Menuju Paradigma Keamanan KomprehensifBerperspektifKeamanan Manusia dalam Kebijakan Keamanan Nasional Indonesia’, Lex Jurnalica, Vol. 6 No.1, Desember.

Swain, A.,1996, ‘Environmental migration and conflict dynamics: focus on developing regions’. Third World Quarterly, 17(5), 959-973.

Trenberth, Kevin & National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Staff (Eds), Last modified 02 Feb 2016, ‘The Climate Data Guide: Nino SST Indices (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4, 4; ONI and TNI)’, tersedia di https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni, diakses pada 20 Juni 2018.

UCDP/PRIO., 2018, ‘Rate of battle deaths in state-based conflicts by type of conflictsince 1946’, Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), tersedia di www.prio.org/Data/Armed-Conflict, diakses pada 21 Juni 2018.

UNDP., 1994, ‘Human Development Report 1994’, tersedia di http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/255/hdr_1994_en_complete_nostats.pdf, diakses pada 20 Juni 2018.

UNDP., 2016, ‘Human Development Report 2016’, tersedia di http://hdr.undp.org/en/2016-report, diakses pada 20 Juni 2018.

Urdal, Henrik., 2005,‘People vs. Malthus: Population pressure, environmental degradation, and armed conflict revisited’, Journal of Peace Research, 42(4), hh. 417-434.

USAID., 2009. Conflict Assessment Framework, tersedia di http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnady739.pdf , diakses pada 11 Juni 2018

Werrell, C. E., Femia, F&Sternberg, T., 2015,‘Did we see it coming? State fragility, climate vulnerability, and the uprisings in Syria and Egypt’,SAIS Review, 35(1), hh. 29-46.

Peraturan Perundangan

Undang Undang Nomor 2 Tahun 2002 Tentang Polri

Undang Undang Nomor 3 Tahun 2002 Tentang Pertahanan Negara

Undang Undang Nomor 34 Tahun 2004 Tentang TNI



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jkn.37734

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 3736 | views : 19350

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2018 Adi Subiyanto, Rizaldi Boer, Edvin Aldrian, Perdinan Perdinan, Rilus Kinseng

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.


web
analytics View My Stats