THE METHOD OF CONSTANT MARKET SHARES (CMS) – COMPETITIVENESS EFFECT RECONSIDERED: CASE STUDIES OF ASEAN COUNTRIES

https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.6337

Tri Widodo(1*)

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Constant Market Share (CMS) merupakan alat analisis empiris yang banyak digunakan untuk melihat kinerja ekspor suatu negara. CMS pertama kali dikenalkan oleh Tyszynki (1951), namun CMS versi Leamer dan Stern (1970) lebih banyak digunakan dalam penelitian empiris. Menurut Leamer dan Stern (1970), perubahan nilai ekspor suatu negara dapat dipilih menjadi empat efek yaitu (a) efek trend
ekspor dunia, (b) efek distribusi pasar (c) efek komposisi komoditi dan (d) residual tidak-terjelaskan (efek daya saing). Kritik Richardson (1971a, 1971b) terhadap CMS versi ini tidak mengurangi popularitasnya.
Menurut Fagerberg and Sollie (1987), ketidakmampuan mengidentifikasi residual tidak-terjelaskan (efek daya saing) merupakan kelemahan mendasar CMS versi ini. Fagerberg dan Sollie mengembangkan lebih lanjut CMS versi Tyszynki (1951).
Paper ini memiliki dua bagian utama. Pertama, paper ini mendiskusikan secara komprehensif metode-metode CMS tersebut dan kemudian memperbaiki CMS versi Leamer dan Stern (1970) berdasarkan kritik Richardson (1971a, 1971b) dan Fagerberg dan Sollie (1987). Paper ini menurunkan rumus baru CMS dimana perubahan nilai ekspor suatu negara dapat dipilah menjadi enam efek yaitu (a) efek trend ekspor dunia (b) efek pangsa pasar (c) efek komposisi komoditi (d) efek komposisi pasar (e) efek adaptasi komoditi dan (f) efek adaptasi pasar. Versi baru CMS ini mengoreksi kelemahan versi Leamer dan
Sterm (1970) berkaitan dengan subyektivitas penentuan urutan efek distribusi pasar dan efek komposisi komoditi, interpretasi efek daya saing dan penggunaan indeks.
Kedua, metode CMS baru ini kemudian diaplikasikan untuk menganalisis kinerja ekspor negaranegara ASEAN (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand dan Philippine) untuk periode 1980-1985, 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2001 dan 2001-2006. Paper ini berkesimpulan bahwa trend ekspor dunia memiliki peranan dominan terhadap kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN. Regionalism dan ekonomi integrasi pada periode 1990-1995membawa perubahan pola perdagangan, dimana pada periode ini perdagangan intraregional
lebih dominan. Efek pangsa pasar dan efek komposisi pasar juga lebih signifikan mempengaruhi kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN pada periode tersebut.


Keywords: Constant Market Share (CMS), Commodity Adaptation Effect and Market Adaptation Effect.


Keywords


Constant Market Share (CMS), Commodity Adaptation Effect and Market Adaptation Effect

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.6337

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