Andi Irawan(1*), Perry Warjiyo(2)

(1) Universitas Bengkulu
(2) Bank Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author


In general the aim of this study is to investigate short-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research is to analyze which economic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy. We apply the Vector Error Correction Model on monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The main result of this study shows as follow: 1) that the asset financial and the commodity demand blocks the most producing instability in the economy. On the other hand, the export block producing the least instability to the economy. The finding suggest that government should concentrate attention on asset financial and the commodity demand blocks in stabilizing the economy, as they are major sources of instability of the economy. 2) To stabilize the commodity demand, it is also necessary to stabilize the financial market, as the assets demand block is the most contributor of the instability in the commodity demand block. In other words, money demand is the main source of instability. Because money supply is determined by government, the disequlibrium error measure the excess supply of money in the market. This suggest that monetary policy that reduces the disequlibrium error can help stabilize the economy.


Instabilitas, Disequilibrium Error, Ekonomi Makro, Perdagangan Internasional, Pertanian, Vector Error Correction Model

Full Text:



Asnawi. 2000. Dampak Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro terhadap Kinerja Sektor Pertanian di Indonesia: Suatu Pendekatan Ekono-metrika. Proposal Disertasi Doktor Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Baharumshah, A.Z. dan M. Ariff. 1997. “Purchasing Power Parity in South East Asian Countris Economies: A Cointe-gration Approach”. Asian Economic Journal, 11: 141- 153.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. 1993. “Purchasing Power Parity Based on Effective Exchange Rate and Cointegration: 25 LDC’s Experience With its Absolute Formulation”. World Development, 21: 1023-1031.

Banerjee, A.J., J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraight dan D.F. Hendry. 1993. Cointegration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Bank Indonesia. 2003. Quarterly Macroeconometeric Model: Short Term Forecast Model for Indonesia Economy. Directorate of Economic Research and Monetary Policy Bank Indonesia, Jakarta.

Barro, R. 1977. ”Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in The United States”. American Economic Review, 67: 101-115

Beck, M dan P. Winker. 2004. “Modeling Spillover and Feedback of International Trade in a Disequilibrium Error Frame-work”. Economic Modeling, 21:445-470.

Biro Pusat Statistik. 1984. “A Macro-Economic Model of Indonesia. Preliminary Result of Econometric Models in ELSA Project”. Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo.

Blinder, A.S. 1982. “Inventories and Sticky Price: More on The Micro-Foundations of Macroeconomics”. American Economic Review, 72: 334-348.

Boediono. 1979. Econometric Model of Indonesian Economy for Short-Run Policy Analysis. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Pensylvania, Philadelphia.

Chen, D.T. 1977. “The Wharton Agricultural Model: Structure, Specification and Simulation Results”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 59: 107 – 116.

Corbae, D dan S. Outliaris. 1988. “Cointe-gration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity”. Review of Economic and Statistics, 70: 508-511

Coakley, J. dan A. Fuertes. 2001. “Nonpara-metric Cointegration Analysis of Real Exchange Rate”. Applied Financial Economics, 11: 1-8.

Cromatry, W.A. 1959. “An Econometric Model United States Agriculture”. Journal of America Statistical Association, 5: 556-574.

Cuddington, J.T dan L.Hong. 2000. “Purchasing Power Parity Over Two Centuries?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 19:753 – 757.

Devados, S. W.H. Meyers dan D.R. Starleaf. 1990. “Impact of US Monetary Policies on The Farm Sektor: An Econometric Analysis”. Applied Economics, 22 :1451-1470.

Dietzenbacher, E. 2000. “Spillovers of Inno-vation Effect”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 22 (1) 27 – 42.

Dornbusch. R dan S. Fischer. 1994. Makroekonomi. Edisi ke 4. Penerbit Erlangga, Jakarta

Dradjat, B. 2004. Evaluasi Kinerja Sub Sektor Perkebunan dalam Perekonomian Nasional dan Implikasi Kebijakan dalam Menghadapi Era Perdagangan Bebas. Disertasi Doktor. Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Enders, W. 1995. Applied Econometrics Time Series.

John Wiley, Canada. Engle, R.f. dan C.W.J. Granger. 1987. “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”. Review of Economic and Statistics, 64 (2):231-53.

Feridhanusetyawan, T dan M. Pangestu. 2004. “Indonesia in Crisis: A Macroeconomic Persepective”. Economic Working Paper Series.

Fischer. S. 1977. “Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectation and The Optimal Money Supply Rule”. Journal of Political Economy, 85: 191-205.

Frankel, J. 1986. “Expectation and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67: 344-348.

Galbraith, J.K dan W. Darity. Macro-economics. 1994. Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston. Glens, J.D. 1992. “Real Exchange Rate in The Short, Medium and Long Run”. Journal of International Economic, 33: 147 – 166.

Habibullah, M. S. 1997. “Can The P-Star Approach be Used to Model Inflation in Indonesia? Some Empirical Evidence”. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (EKI), 45(3): 413-430.

Henneberry, S. R., M. E. Khan dan K. Piewthongngam. 2000. “An Analysis of Industrial- Agricultural Interactions: a Case Study in Pakistan”. Agricultural Economics, 22 (2000) 17 - 27.

Irawan, A. 2005. “Analisis Perilaku Insta-bilitas, Pergerakan Harga, Employment dan Investasi di dalam Sektor Pertanian Indonesia: Aplikasi Vector Error Correction Model”. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 8(3):79-115

Irawan, A. 2004. ”Komoditas Pertanian Indonesia, Target Ekspor dan Hambatan Sisi Permintaan dan Penawaran”. Agrimedia 9 (2):45-50.

Kasymir, E. 2001. Simulasi Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro terhadap Kinerja Makro Ekonomi Indonesia: Pendekatan Makroekonometrika. Proposal Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Kim, Y. 1990. “Purchasing Power Parity: Another Look at The Long-run Data”. Economics Letter, 32: 339-344.

Kurtubi. 1998. “Konsumsi, Harga dan Bentuk Pasar BBM di Indonesia”. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (EKI), 46 (3): 369-390.

Lamm, R.M. 1980. “The Role of Agriculture in The Macroeconomy: a Sektoral Analysis”. Applied Economics, 12 : 19 -35.

Liew, K.S., A.Z. Baharumshah dan K.P. Lim. 2003. “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle in Indonesia: Insights from ESTAR Model”. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (EKI), 51 (3): 253-269.

Lothian, J.R. dan M.P. Taylor. 1996. “Is a Random Walk The Best Exchange Rate Predictor?” International Journal of Forecasting, 13: 255-267. Mohamed, A., M.S. Habibullah dan A.Z.

Baharumshah. 2001. “Does PPP Hold Between Asian and Japanese Economies: Evidence Using Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration”. Japan and The World Economy, 13: 35 – 50.

O’Connell, P.G. 1998. “The Over Valuation of Purchasing Power Parity”. Journal of International Economic, 44: 1 – 9. Orden, D. 1986. “Money and Agriculture; The Dynamic of Money-Financial Market- Agricultural Trade Linkages”. Agricultural Economic Research, 38: 14-28.

Ozatay, F. 2000. “A Quarterly Macroecono-metric Model for A Highly Inflationary and Indebted Country: Turkey”. Economic Modelling, 17: 1 - 11.

Pangestu, M.E. 1986. The Effects of An Oil Boom of A Small Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Indonesia, Ph.D Dissertation. University of California, Davis.

Pattinasarany, G.D.V. 1997. “Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity in Indonesia”. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (EKI), 45 (2): 235 -261.

Quance, L. dan L. Tweeten. 1972. “Excess Capacity and Adjustment Potential in US Agriculture”. Agricultural Economic Research, 24: 57 – 66.

Schuh, G.E. 1974. “The Exchange Rates and US Agriculture”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, (56): 1-13.

Sugema, I. 1992. The Dynamic of Macroeconomy-Trade-Agriculture Linkages in The Australian Economy: An Application of Error Correction Model to Cointegrated Relation Ship. The University of New England. Thesis S2. Department of Agricultural Economic and Business Management, New England.

Sugema, I. 2000. Indonesia’s Deep Economic Crisis: The Role of Tha Banking Sektor in Its Origins and Propagation. A Thesis submitted for Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University.

Sugema, I dan Simorangkir. 2004. “Peranan The Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) terhadap Perekonomian: Suatu Kajian Empiris terhadap Bantuan Likuiditas Bank Indonesia (BLBI)”. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 7(1): 53-87.

Supriana, T. 2004. Dampak Guncangan Struktural terhadap Fluktuasi Ekonomimakro Indonesia: Suatu Kajian Business Cycle Dari Sisi Permintaan. Disertasi S3 Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Thomas, R. L. 1999. Modern Econometric. Department of Economics, Manchester Metropolitan University. Addison-Wesley, England.

Verbeek, M. 2002. A Guide to Modern Econometrics. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, England.

Willenbockel, D. 1999. “Dynamic Applied General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis in The Presence of Foreign Asset Cross-ownership”. Economic Modelling, 16: 371-388.

Zaini, A. 2003. Peranan Sektor Pertanian Sebelum dan Pada Masa Krisis Ekonomi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi. Tesis S2 Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Zeitner, R.H. 1977. ”Agricultural Activity and General Economy: Some Macroeconomic Experiments”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 59: 177- 225.

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 805 | views : 6447


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2006 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business


Editorial Team
Focus and Scope
Peer Review Process
Publication Ethics
Screening for Plagiarism


Author Guidelines
Submission Guidelines
Online Submissions
Copyright Notice
Privacy Statement
Author Fees


Author Pack
Submission Form & Manuscript Template



Reviewer Guidelines
Reviewer Acknowledgement



General Search
Author index
Title index



The Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (print ISSN 2085-8272; online ISSN 2338-5847) is published by the Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia. The content of this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

© 2019 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business 
 Visitor Statistics