PENGANGGURAN STRUKTURAL DI INDONESIA: KETERANGAN DARI ANALISIS SVAR DALAM KERANGKA



Dharendra Wardhana(1*), Dhanie Nugroho(2)

(1) BAPPENAS
(2) Bursa Efek Surabaya
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


This paper is mainly aimed to measure labor supply shocks and their effects to national economy through “theory-guided view” mechanism by using such indicators as unemployment rate, real Gross Domestic Product, and real wages. By implementing structural VAR methodological framework, it makes possible to trace and to identify how an economy works through imposing restrictions in order to conform to theory. Our results suggest that long-term unemployment affected the process of policy making of both monetary and real sector in achieving objectives set in national development planning.

Keywords


Structural unemployment, hysteresis framework, structural VAR

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References

Badan Pusat Statistik (berbagai terbitan), Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Balmaseda, M., Dolado J. dan Lopez-Salido. D. 2000. “The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries,” Oxford Economics Papers 52 (4): 3-23 Blanchard, Olivier Jean dan Danny Quah. 1989. “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,” American Economic Review 29 (4): 655-673 Blanchard, Olivier Jean dan Katz L. 1997. ”What we know and do not know about the natural rate of unemployment”. NBER working paper series, No. 5822 Fritsche, Ulrich dan Camille Logeay. 2002. “Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework,” DIW Berlin Gambetti, Luca dan Barbara Pistoresi. 2004. “Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate,” Empirical Economics 29: 209-226 Gujarati, Damodar N. 2003. Basic Econome-trics 4th edition. McGraw-Hill Co. New York. International Monetary Fund (berbagai ter-bitan), International Financial Statistics, http://ifs.apdi.net Iryanti, Rahma. 2006. Menggunakan Decent Work Indicator dalam Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional. tidak dipublikasikan



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