IS 'THE IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY' TRUE?



Arti D. Adji(1*)

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Aliran modal masuk ke kawasan Asia-Pasifik meningkat secara signifikan pada akhir tahun 1980-an dan cenderung berlebih pada paruh pertama tahun 1990an. Aliran modal masuk yang berlebih tidak akan berdampak buruk apabila 'The Impossible Trinity' benar terjadi. Tulisan ini bertujuan menelaah fenomena 'The Impossible Trinity (Kemustahilan Tritunggal)' yaitu independensi kebijakan moneter, eksogenitas kurs, dan aliran modal internasional yang bebas. Kawasan Asia-Pasifik tidak dapat menghindari terjadinya 'Kemustahilan Tritunggal'. Salah satu komponen Tritunggal harus diendogenkan. Di samping itu, sterilisasi juga terbukti tidak efektif dalam mengantisipasi aliran modal masuk.


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