SUATU PENDEKATAN EKONOMETRI TERHADAP EKONOMI MAKRO INDONESIA (1978-1994)



Aris Soelistyo(1*), Farid Wijaya Mansoer(2)

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(2) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


An emperical study to Macroeconomic of Indonesia 1978.3-1994.4 with econometric approach, and be emphasized on its short run behaviour is directed to seek for the approval of treatment for sintesa Monetarist-Keynes in order to analysis Macro-economic of Indonesia by ekonometric method and though reduced form equation will try to express the impact ofgoverment expenditure, the riil exchange rate index, and the domestic credit changes to Income, price and Balance of Payment. The reduced form coefficient are called impact multiplier, since they measure the immediate response of the endogenous variables to changes in the predetermined variable. Debate and controversy between rival school economic thinking are conducted the theoritical level, the emperical level, and the policy level, especially, in order to express the Balance of payment. The Moneterist view balance of payment surplus and deficit as monetery flow due to stock disequilibrium in the money market or a balance of payment disequilibrium is a merely a reflection of a disequilibrium in the money market. Thus the monetary approach to the balance of payment asserts that the balance of payment involves essential monetary fenomena, in which that increase in income imply that the balance of payment improves, since the demand for money rises. On the other hand, the balance of payment expression in Keynes approach, however, associates increases in income with increased import and a detiorating balance of payment. Does this mean that the two approach provide conflicting views on the balance of payments. Actually, the different between them lies in the way the balance of payment is looked at, in which Keynes look at the balance of payment statistik from the top down (ie. the current account) while' the monetarist look for the bottom up (ie. the change in Reserve).

Full Text:

PDF


References

Aghevli,BB,l976, "A Model of the Monetary Sector for Indonesia 1968-I973", Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, vol 12/3,pp.50-60.

Aghevli.BB, 1977, "Money,Price and The Balance of Payment: Indonesia, !968- 1973", Journal of Development Studies, vol,13/2,pp.35-57.

Agheli B Bijan,I977, "An Econometric Model of Monetary Sector for Indonesia", Journal of Development Studies.

Aghevli,B Bijan,and Khan Ms,1978, Government Deficits and The Inflationary Process in Developing Countries, IMF Staff Papers.

Batiz.Franscisco, L R and Batiz,Luis R.I985, International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macmiilan Publishing Company, Newyork.

Begg,David KHJ980, The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics, theories and evidence. The John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore Maryland. 291

Branson, William H,1989, Macroeconomic Theory and Policy, third edition, Harper & Row publisher.

Chiang,Alpha C,1984, Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, third edition, International Student Edition, McGraw-Hillinc. .

Christ Carl F, 1969, Econometric Models and Methods, John Wilely & Sons.lnc, Newyork-London-Sidney.

Dent,Warrent and Geweke, John,1980, On Specification in Simultaneous Equation Models, pg 169-195.

Desai, Meghnad, 1981, Testing Monetarism, Frances Printer Publisher Ltd.London, 241 Pg

Djanin, Muh Arif,1990, "Monetary Control in A Developing Economy: Indonesian Case", Disertation Phd. Universitas Ekonomi Indonesia, Jakarta.

Djiwandono, Joseph Soedradjad, 1980, "A Monetary Analysis of An Open Economy: The Case of Indonesia 1968-1978", Disertation Phd, Boston University Graduate School University, Microfilm International.

Doti, James L and Adibi, Esmai!, 1988, Econometric Analysis an Applications Approach, Prentice Hall, Englewood Clifs, New Jersey, 471 hal.

Farebrother, R, W & Savin, 1974, N.E The graphofthe k class estimator. Journal of Econometrics, 2, page 373-388.

Frenkel, J. 1971, A Theory of Money, Trade and The Balance of Payments in a Model of Accumulation, Journal of International Economic, may , vol.1, pg 159-187.

Giles,David, Some Recent Developments in Econometrics : lessons for Applied Economist, pg3-19

Gujarati, Damodar N, 1995, Basic Econometrics, fivth edition.

Harry, Kelejian and Roger, Betancourt, 1980 , Lagged Endogenous Variables and The Cohrane-Orcutt Procedure, Econometri-ca,1980, pp.1073-1078.

Hausman J, A, 1978, Specification test in Econometrics, Econometrics, Number 6, Vol.46, November 1978, page 1251

Havrilesky T and Boorman J, 1976, Current Issues in Monetary Theory and Policy.

Heathfield, Dafid F and Wibesoren, 1987, An Introduction to Cost and Production Function, Macmillan Education Ltd, first published, London.

Hendry Dafid F, 1995, Dynamic Econometric, Advanced Econometric, Oxford University Pres.

Ichiro O and Yung Ch'il Park,1976, A Monetary Model of the Korean Economy, International Monetary Fund

Inrriligator, Michael D. 1978, Econometric Models, Techniques and Application, Prentice-Hall inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey Amerika Serikat Judge

George W,et all, 1985, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, second Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Khan, Mohsin,1974, Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries, Inter- national Monetary Fund, Staff Papers.

Khan, Mohsin,S,t974, Experiment with a Monetary Model for The Venezuelan Economy, IMF StaffPapers.

Khan, Mohsin.s and Agheli, BB,1974, Credit Policy and The Balance of Payment in Developing Countries, IMF StaffPapers.

Kmenta, Jan, 1991, Elements of Econometric, Second Edition,

Kosobud, Richard and Minami, Ryoshin, 1977, Econometric Studies of Japan, University of Illinois Press Urbana Chicago London.

Koutsoyiannis A, 1977, Theory of Econometric, second edition, Prentice Hall, Englewood Clifs, Jew Jersey

Mage, Stephen P, 1976, The Emperical Evidence on the Monetary Approach to The Balance of Payments and Exchange rates, American Economic Association, Vol.66. No.2, 163-170

Maddala, GS, 1992, Introduction to Econometrics, second edition. Maxwell Macmillan International Publishing Company, Newyork.

Malcom, D Knight and Clifford R Wymer, 1978. A Macroeconomic Model of the United Kingdom, Economic Modeling.

Malinvaud, E. 1980, Statistical Methods af Econometrics, third revised edition, North Holland Publishing Company, 737 pg

Miller C Norman,1995, Managing International Reserves in Developing Countries, Asian Development Review, vol 13, no.1, pp54-77.

Monfiel, Peter J and Khan Mohan, Growth Oriented Adjustment Program, A Conceptual Framework. IMF Staff Papers.

Nopirin ,1983. A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian Approach to the Balance of Payment: The Indonesian Case, 1970-1979, Ph.d Dissertation, Washington State University, 1983, Unpublished

Otani, Ichiro, 5975, Inflation in an Open Economy: A Case Study of The Philipines, IMF StaffPapers.

Otani, ichiro,1975, Some Emperical Evidence on the Determination of Wage and Price Movements in Japan, 1900-1973; A Survey, International Monetary Funds staff Papers 469-493.

Park Y.C and Otani,i,1976. A Monetary Model of The Korean Economy, International Monetary Fund, Staff Papers.

Pindyck Robert S and Rubinfeld.Daniel L, 1991, Econometric Model and Economic Forecasts, International Edition, McGraw-Hill, Inc. third edition.

Polak JJ and Argy Victor,1977, Credit Policy and The Balance of Payments, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers

Salvatore Dominick, 1993, International Economics, Fourth Edition. Macmillan Publishing Company, New York. Sonmez Atessoglu H.1993. "Balance of Payment constrained growth, evidence from the United States", Journal of Post Keynesian Economic. Vol.15, No.4 pp.507-514

Thomas, R Leighton.1985, Introductory Econometrics: Theory and Application, first edition, British Library Catalog in Publishing Data, Printed in Singapore.

Turnovsky, Stephen J,I981, Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy, Cambridge University Press ,USA.




Article Metrics

Abstract views : 756 | views : 1715

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2018 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

Journal

Editorial Team
Focus and Scope
Peer Review Process
Publication Ethics
Screening for Plagiarism

Authors

Author Guidelines
Submission Guidelines
Online Submissions
Copyright Notice
Privacy Statement
Author Fees

Download

Author Pack
Submission Form & Manuscript Template

 

Reviewer

Reviewer Guidelines
Reviewer Acknowledgement

 

Reader

General Search
Achieves
Author index
Title index

 

 

The Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (print ISSN 2085-8272; online ISSN 2338-5847) is published by the Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia. The content of this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

© 2019 Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business 
 Visitor Statistics