DO BUDGET DEFICITS RAISE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS? CASES IN ASEAN-5



Arti D. Adji(1*)

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji apakah defisit anggaran meningkatkan defisit transaksi berjalan seperti yang diharapkan oleh teori makroekonomi konvensional. Objek dari tulisan ini adalah lima negara pendiri ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand dan Philipina). Terdapat debat mengenai pengaruh defisit anggaran terhadap defisit transaksi berjalan. Pendekatan konvensional menyatakan bahwa defisit anggaran akan meningkatkan defisit transaksi berjalan melalui pengaruh tingkat bunga dan pengaruh output. Pendekatan Ricardian meyakini bahwa defisit anggaran dan defisit transaksi berjalan tidak berhubungan. Selama ini studi-studi empiris menghasilkan kesimpulan yang mendua. Tulisan ini menemukan bahwa pada awal 1980-an defisit transaksi berjalan di ASEAN-5 terutama disebabkan oleh defisit anggaran, sedangkan pada tahun 1990-an defisit transaksi berjalan lebih banyak disebabkan oleh adanya investasi yang berlebihan (overinvestment). Fenomena overinvestment ini disinyalir juga merupakan salah satu sebab timbulnya krisis keuangan di Asia Tenggara.

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