LONG TERM PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION SECTOR IN WEST PAPUA PROVINCE: LEAP MODEL APPLICATION

Etika Nur'Aini; Isra Nuur Darmawan; Mohammad Alfiza Rayesa

doi:10.22146/ajse.v4i2.57123

LONG TERM PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION SECTOR IN WEST PAPUA PROVINCE: LEAP MODEL APPLICATION

https://doi.org/10.22146/ajse.v4i2.57123

Etika Nur'Aini^(1*), Isra Nuur Darmawan⁽²⁾, Mohammad Alfiza Rayesa⁽³⁾

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(2) Universitas Wijaya Kusuma
(3) Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

Electricity is one of the crucial infrastructures in economic development. The number of registered customers electricity increases every year based on data from the State Electricity Company (PLN) Manokwari branch office data. Electricity increase because it has become an essential part of everyday life. Therefore, in West Papua, it is necessary to fix this electricity problem where the most significant source is still from fossils. By looking at potential sources in West Papua that are more sustainable and renewable to meet public electricity demand in West Papua.

In this study, LEAP software will simulate several scenarios, namely based on data from the RUPTL (Electricity Supply Business Plan) and further digging based on the potential literature in West Papua. There will be three scenarios; scenario 1 uses BAU (Business as Usual) as available in RUPTL. Scenario 2 uses BAU data and adds potential renewable energy. Scenario 3 is not using fossil energy but using renewable energy. The result is West Papua can be 100% electrified in 2025 if using scenario 2. The potential for renewable energy in West Papua is wind and sun. However, it does not rule out other sources, such as hydropower.

Keywords

Electricity, Capacity, Renewable Energy, LEAP

Full Text:

PDF

References

Bawan, E. K. (2009). ANALISA POTENSI ENERGI TERBARUKAN DI KABUPATEN KAIMANA PROPINSI PAPUA BARAT. SMARTek, 7(No 2 2009).

Dayana, K., Mathew, S., Petra, I., & Lim, C. (2016). Sustainable and secure energy future for oil-rich economies: A case study from Brunei Darussalam. 1–5.

Ejaz, S., Aamir, M., Khan, M. A., & Ashfaq, B. (2018). Modeling and analysis of CPEC energy power projects using LEAP model. 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies (ICoMET), 1–8.

Hussain, A., Ullah, K., Perwez, U., & Shahid, M. (2018). The Long-term Forecast Of Gilgit Baltistan(GB) 's Electricity Demand. 2018 International Conference on Power Generation Systems and Renewable Energy Technologies (PGSRET), 1–5.

Kemenkumham, D. (2014). GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA NUMBER 79 OF 2014 ON NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA. Ditjenpp.Kemenkumham.

Kresnawan, M. R., Safitri, I. A., & Darmawan, I. (2018). Long term projection of electricity generation sector in east kalimantan province: LEAP model application. Proceedings - 12th SEATUC Symposium, SEATUC 2018, March.

Massaga, D. J., Kirkil, G., & Celebi, E. (2019). A Comparative Study of Energy Models for Turkish Electricity Market Using LEAP. International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM, 2019-Septe, 4–7.

Rehman, S. A. U., Cai, Y., Fazal, R., Das Walasai, G., & Mirjat, N. H. (2017). An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan. Energies, 10(11).

Shahinzadeh, H., Fathi, S. H., & Hasanalizadeh-Khosroshahi, A. (2016). Long-term energy planning in IRAN using LEAP scenario: Using combined heat and power (CHP). 2016 Iranian Conference on Renewable Energy Distributed Generation (ICREDG), 32–37.

Wang, Q., Mu, R., Yuan, X., & Ma, C. (2010). Research on energy demand forecast with LEAP model based on scenario analysis - A case study of Shandong Province. Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC, 1–4.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/ajse.v4i2.57123